Crisis Stability and Long-Range Strike: A Comparative Analysis of Fighters, Bombers, and Missiles by Forrest E. Morgan

Author:Forrest E. Morgan [Morgan, Forrest E.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 978-0-8330-7847-6
Publisher: RAND Corporation
Published: 2013-08-15T00:00:00+00:00

CHAPTER FOUR

Strike Systems and Crisis Stability in History

Results of the analysis in Chapter Three indicated that aircraft and, particularly penetrating bombers, possess important attributes that will likely be needed to effectively manage future confrontations with dangerous states. However, that analysis was largely theoretical, so a review of the empirical record is warranted to determine the extent to which the dynamics predicted in Chapter Three have influenced the outcomes of historical cases. This chapter undertakes that task. It examines 48 cases in which states have confronted one another since the end of World War II to determine how strike assets were postured or used. It then assesses the effects on structural stability and crisis management outcomes. If the results of the foregoing analysis are valid, these cases should exhibit characteristics that support the following propositions:

1. Combat aircraft are the strike asset of choice in efforts to manage international crises and accomplish coercive objectives.

2. When aircraft are postured in ways that impose a potent deterrent threat without being vulnerable to surprise attack, crises are stabilized and coercive objectives are obtained.

2. Success in crisis management and coercive diplomacy most often goes to the actor that postures bombers.

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